Statistical model · 6 leagues
We call the odds — and how often we've been wrong.
A Poisson goal model, Elo ranking, and form compute 1X2 odds for every match. The model is deterministic and unit-tested, and you can check its track record below — misses included. The full prediction list needs a free account.
Next match · close to even
Deportivo Alavés – Getafe CF
August 15 · La Liga
- 1 home
- 35%
- X draw
- 33%
- 2 away
- 32%
Latest verdict
Spain 1–0 Argentina — the model gave 52% for what actually happened. The call held up.
What computes the number
Poisson goal model
Expected goals from each team's attacking and defensive strength, and from those the probability of every scoreline. The Dixon–Coles correction restores low-scoring matches that a plain Poisson underestimates.
Elo ranking
Every finished match moves the teams' strength ranking. A more recent result carries more weight; older ones fade out gradually.
Form
The last five results tune the expected goal count moderately, by a few percentage points. Momentum, not prophecy.
There's no language model in it. The numbers all come from these three components; a separate Claude call writes the narrative from the finished numbers.
Public track record
What the model has delivered so far
49
Evaluated matches
played, predicted in advance
59%
1X2 hit rate
29/49 · guessing ≈ 33%
0.528
Average Brier score
lower = better · guessing ≈ 0.667
The Brier score also measures confidence, not just hits: being right at 70% is worth more than at 40%, and being wrong at 70% hurts more. Both numbers swing a lot on a small sample.
What's inside
Predictions filtered by league
1X2 odds, expected goals, and the most likely score for upcoming matches, updated daily.
Analysis on request
Generated once per match; after that everyone reads the finished text.
Team pages with a verdict
The last match shows the pre-match call next to the actual result, marked as a hit or a miss.
Open accuracy metrics
Hit rate and Brier score for every evaluated match, no gloss.
See what the model says about this weekend.
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