Statistical model · 21 competitions
We call the odds — and how often we've been wrong.
A Poisson goal model, Elo ranking and form compute the odds for every match — from club leagues to national teams. The track record is public, misses included.
Today · 12:15 PM
EredivisiePEC Zwolle – ADO Den Haag
PEC Zwolle win 37% · draw 25% · ADO Den Haag win 38%
Latest verdict
SC Corinthians Paulista 2–0 Mirassol FC — the model gave 36% for what actually happened. The call held up.
The full record, misses includedHow it works
- 01
Odds for every match
1X2, double chance, goal totals, both teams to score and the likeliest scores.
- 02
A slip in a few taps
Pick the odds you want. One match can take several markets at one combined price — the way your bookmaker offers it.
- 03
Your own record
You record your bets at your own odds. Hits and ROI come from the final score — nothing to adjust afterwards.
There's no language model in it. The numbers all come from these three components; a separate Claude call writes the narrative from the finished numbers.
Public track record
What the model has delivered so far
974
Evaluated matches
played, predicted in advance
48%
1X2 hit rate
463/974 · guessing ≈ 33%
0.622
Average Brier score
lower = better · guessing ≈ 0.667
The Brier score also measures confidence, not just hits: being right at 70% is worth more than at 40%, and being wrong at 70% hurts more. Both numbers swing a lot on a small sample.
This record belongs to the model running now. Earlier versions left 150 further evaluated predictions behind — they are listed separately on the stats page, because another model's results are not this one's.
Clubs and national teams
The ones with a green dot have matches coming up now.
- Champions League
- Premier League
- La Liga
- Serie A
- Bundesliga
- Ligue 1
- Primeira Liga
- + 11 more
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