Statistical model · 16 competitions
We call the odds — and how often we've been wrong.
A Poisson goal model, Elo ranking, and form compute 1X2 odds for every match. The model is deterministic and unit-tested, and you can check its track record below — misses included. The full prediction list needs a free account.
Next match · slight favourite
LDU de Quito – SE Palmeiras
September 16 · Copa Libertadores
- 1 home
- 48%
- X draw
- 26%
- 2 away
- 26%
Latest verdict
CA Platense 2–1 Fluminense FC — the model gave 58% for what actually happened. The call held up.
What computes the number
Poisson goal model
Expected goals from each team's attacking and defensive strength, and from those the probability of every scoreline. The Dixon–Coles correction restores low-scoring matches that a plain Poisson underestimates.
Elo ranking
Every finished match moves the teams' strength ranking. A more recent result carries more weight; older ones fade out gradually.
Form
The last five results tune the expected goal count moderately, by a few percentage points. Momentum, not prophecy.
There's no language model in it. The numbers all come from these three components; a separate Claude call writes the narrative from the finished numbers.
Public track record
What the model has delivered so far
399
Evaluated matches
played, predicted in advance
47%
1X2 hit rate
186/399 · guessing ≈ 33%
0.631
Average Brier score
lower = better · guessing ≈ 0.667
The Brier score also measures confidence, not just hits: being right at 70% is worth more than at 40%, and being wrong at 70% hurts more. Both numbers swing a lot on a small sample.
This record belongs to the model running now. Earlier versions left 150 further evaluated predictions behind — they are listed separately on the stats page, because another model's results are not this one's.
What's inside
Predictions filtered by league
1X2 odds, expected goals, and the most likely score for upcoming matches, updated daily.
Analysis written ahead of kick-off
Written during the daily update, once per match — after that everyone reads the same finished text.
Team pages with a verdict
The last match shows the pre-match call next to the actual result, marked as a hit or a miss.
Open accuracy metrics
Hit rate and Brier score for every evaluated match, no gloss.
See what the model says about this weekend.
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